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Delays [Alter]Delays [Alter]Misc

AzyxAzyx3 years ago
***still some time to vote in the January 2017 poll!***

Welcome to my first blog on delays!

Delays, you probably can't browse throught MFC without seeing a complaint about them, I mentionned in a previous blog that I was using the information in the MFC database to compile some numbers on this.

I've included a few guidelines, but nothing is really final for the moment, unfortunatly, I'm not comparing all the manufacturer in this blog, I'm starting with Alter and I'm going to do Phat Company in the next one, I intended to go with Good Smile Company for the second, but they're kind of complicated, they got lot of double manufacturer entry, lot of thing that this is not intended to look at (nendoroid code and those Miku's cars xD) and so on. For my third blog on this, I plan on doing a poll in my second one with choice so that you can actually choose the third one, so suggestion would be welcome so that I get a poll list ready for the second blog on this.

A few guidelines under spoiler:
View spoilerHide spoiler1- I'm doing this on character pre-painted figure, action figure won't be included , mechanical stuff that doesn't represent a character won't be included either.
2- Recolor released at the same time will only count as one release (and won't count toward exclusive/limited either).
3- Two or more figure of the same source released at the same time will still all count individually.
4- Recolor released at a different time will count toward re-release.
5- Renewal will be treated the same way as recolor.
6- Any entry with more than one manufacturer won't be included (unless I do a blog on them, but I guess I won't have enought release to work with).
7- Exclusive/limited will be on a case by case, for example, figure released at a specific event will most likely be excluded (I'm not talking about pre-order, but release, just to be clear). Also stuff that fit less into the bishoujo/bishonen might be excluded, only thing that comes to mind right now is those Ninja Turtle from Good Smile Company, I'd like input on this though, it's one of the reason I'm not doing Good Smile Company in second, there's also that dude in a chair ITEM #218371, no clue what that was lol. There's also some exclusive/limited release that will be excluded, a good example is all the figure from Alter in the "Winter Figure Campaign".
9- Nendoroid code and Nendoroid stuff in general that still end up in the pre-painted category will be excluded. Another thing I'm wondering, is the FigFix, which is the same principle as the Nendoroid code that I'd like to exclude but I'm not sure yet, any input is welcome.
10- I used the "History" option available on MFC entry in the database, back in August 2013 I think, that option started listing detailed change to the entry, which include change in the release date. I had to confirm throught comments for some item of 2014 because they were announced before this was in place.

***Also, while I did double check my data, it's not impossible that an error occured somewhere, so if you find anything, please let me know so that I can make the correction! Thank you!***

This will cover the year 2014, 2015 and 2016. I'll look at different average, for first time release, re-release and the same thing while excluding the exclusive and/or limited entry. I'll also include some data on 2017 so far, but take into consideration that it doesn't mean much at this point of the year. I'll also include a look at the average delay depending on the month it was released and on the month it was planned to be release.

Before presenting anything, I'll list the data I used by year, I'll include a list of note on different figure (exlcusion, exception that end up within re-release instead of first time release, etc.). Following that small list, within spoiler will be the data classified in 2 section, "FIRST TIME RELEASE" and "RE-RELEASE". On each line, you'll find in this order:
- Character name
- Planned release date (last day of the announced month)
- Release date
- Delay in days (can't be lower than 0)

2014:
EXCLUDED - Sonico Summer Santa ITEM #259984 MegaHobby Expo 2014 Autumn
EXCLUDED - Dizzy Type-S ITEM #175852 MegaHobby Expo 2013 Autumn
EXCLUDED - Mave Yukikaze FFR-41MR ITEM #16914 That's a jet!
EXCLUDED - SUPER SYLPH "Yukikaze" FFR-31MR/D ITEM #7615 Again...
RE-RELEASE - Miyafuji Yoshika ITEM #179332 Variation of ITEM #9919
INCLUDED - Yagyu Jubei ITEM #156667 Hobby Japan Exclusive
RE-RELEASE - Yagyu Jubei ITEM #156667 Variation of ITEM #124994
INCLUDED - Maeda Keiji ITEM #146229 Hobby Japan Exclusive
INCLUDED - Magical Emi ITEM #195709 Ryu-NS Exclusive
View spoilerHide spoilerFIRST TIME RELEASE
Kazuno 2013-09-30 2014-04-02 184
Estellise Sidos Heurassein 2013-09-30 2014-02-06 129
Saber Alter 2013-10-31 2014-01-10 71
Maeda Keiji 2013-10-31 2014-01-31 92
Kirigaya Suguha 2013-11-30 2014-05-01 152
Tanigawa Kanna 2013-11-30 2014-04-15 136
Perrine H Clostermann 2013-11-30 2014-05-07 158
Zelos Wilder 2014-01-31 2014-03-28 56
Aty 2014-01-31 2014-06-18 138
Signum 2014-01-31 2014-07-11 161
Takanashi Miu 2014-02-28 2014-04-02 33
Jinguuji Ren 2014-04-30 2014-06-03 34
Hijirikawa Masato 2014-04-30 2014-06-03 34
Sonico 2014-04-30 2014-09-05 128
Francesca Lucchini 2014-04-30 2014-06-13 44
Asuka 2014-05-31 2014-07-11 41
The Muse of Range Murata 2014-05-31 2014-10-16 138
Lynette Bishop 2014-05-31 2014-07-04 34
Isshiki Akane, Isshiki Kenjirou 2014-05-31 2014-07-11 41
Yagami Hayate 2014-06-30 2014-08-20 51
Yagami Hayate, Reinforce II 2014-08-31 2014-09-19 19
Yuuki Mikan 2014-08-31 2014-08-27 0
Souryuu Asuka Langley 2014-09-30 2014-10-17 17
Tachibana Makoto 2014-09-30 2014-10-30 30
Nanase Haruka 2014-09-30 2014-10-30 30
Kasugano Sora 2014-10-31 2014-11-20 20
Hozuki Ferrari 2014-11-30 2014-11-27 0
Magical Emi 2014-11-30 2014-11-28 0
RE-RELEASE
Miyafuji Yoshika 2014-09-30 2014-09-10 0
Sakamoto Mio 2013-10-31 2014-03-12 132
Dizzy 2013-11-30 2014-01-29 60
Ichinose Tokiya 2013-12-31 2014-01-08 8
Ittoki Otoya 2013-12-31 2014-01-08 8
Kasugano Sora 2014-09-30 2014-09-10 0
Yagyu Jubei 2013-12-31 2014-01-10 10

FIRST TIME: 28 / RE-RELEASE: 7

2015:
RE-RELEASE: Natsume Takashi, Madara (Nyanko-sensei) ITEM #198656 Variation of ITEM #27630
RE-RELEASE: Orihara Izaya ITEM #287777 Variation of ITEM #50597
RE-RELEASE: Heiwajima Shizuo ITEM #287781 Variation of ITEM #50598
RE-RELEASE: Kasugano Sora ITEM #266736 Variation of ITEM #186847
INCLUDED: Dera Mochimazzi, Kitashirakawa Anko ITEM #166940 Hobby Stock Web Shop
INCLUDED: Uesugi Kagekatsu ITEM #260678 Hobby Japan Exclusive
View spoilerHide spoilerFIRST TIME
Alisia Heart 2014-12-31 2015-02-12 43
Cecilia Alcott, Charlotte Dunois 2015-01-31 2015-02-25 25
Labrys 2015-01-31 2015-01-29 0
Yuuki Mikan (swimsuit) 2015-01-31 2015-01-23 0
Mefmera 2015-01-31 2015-02-12 12
Houzouin Inshun 2015-02-28 2015-06-09 101
Alisha Diphda 2015-03-31 2015-03-31 0
Heidemarie W Schnaufer 2015-03-31 2015-05-07 37
Mu-12 2015-04-30 2015-06-09 40
Beethoven 2015-04-30 2015-05-07 7
Nishikino Maki 2015-05-31 2015-07-07 37
Kurusu Shou 2015-05-31 2015-05-27 0
Shinomiya Natsuki 2015-05-31 2015-05-27 0
Fate Testarossa 2015-06-30 2015-11-26 149
Dera Mochimazzi, Kitashirakawa Anko 2015-06-30 2015-07-27 27
Asbel Lhant 2015-06-30 2015-07-09 9
Lloyd Irving 2015-06-30 2015-06-11 0
Oshino Shinobu 2015-06-30 2015-07-07 7
Kirisaki Chitoge 2015-07-31 2015-10-27 88
Matsuoka Rin 2015-08-31 2015-09-10 10
Plamya-sama 2015-09-30 2015-09-17 0
Hoshizora Rin 2015-09-30 2015-11-11 42
Gyuuki, Yuuki Yuuna 2015-09-30 2015-11-26 57
Tokugawa Sen 2015-10-31 2015-11-04 4
Lorna Murasame 2015-10-31 2015-12-22 52
Atobe Keigo 2015-10-31 2015-11-10 10
Black Heart 2015-10-31 2015-11-06 6
Uesugi Kagekatsu 2015-10-31 2015-11-27 27
RE-RELEASE
Natsume Takashi, Madara (Nyanko-sensei) 2014-11-30 2015-01-09 40
Kasugano Sora 2015-02-28 2015-03-12 12
Luke fone Fabre 2015-04-30 2015-06-09 40
Souryuu Asuka Langley 2015-04-30 2015-05-15 15
Celty Sturluson 2015-07-31 2015-07-09 0
Orihara Izaya 2015-07-31 2015-08-17 17
Yuuki Mikan 2015-09-30 2015-09-01 0
Heiwajima Shizuo 2015-07-31 2015-08-17 17
Alisha Diphda 2015-12-31 2015-12-16 0

FIRST TIME: 28 / RE-RELEASE: 9

2016:
EXCLUDED: Himeragi Yukina ITEM #339462 No specific day of release. Exclusive bought through a ticket that come with OVA.
EXCLUDED: Won't list them all, but all figure re-released as part of the "Winter Figure Campaign" were excluded.
INCLUDED: Lala Satalin Deviluke ITEM #286484 AmiAmi Exclusive
INCLUDED: Charles D'Artagnan ITEM #12050 Hobby Japan Exclusive (her "Winter Figure Campaign" re-release is excluded.)
View spoilerHide spoilerFIRST TIME
Martina Crespi 2015-11-30 2016-01-15 46
Kotegawa Yui 2015-11-30 2016-01-07 38
Gotou Matabei 2015-11-30 2016-01-13 44
Archer 2015-12-31 2016-02-01 32
Haruna, Kirishima 2015-12-31 2016-03-17 77
Charles D'Artagnan 2016-01-31 2016-02-19 19
Tanigawa Kanna 2016-01-31 2016-03-11 40
Ayase Eli 2016-02-29 2016-03-30 30
Lala Satalin Deviluke 2016-02-29 2016-02-15 0
Fushimi Saruhiko 2016-03-31 2016-04-07 7
Yata Misaki 2016-03-31 2016-04-07 7
Eila Ilmatar Juutilainen, Sanya V Litvyak 2016-03-31 2016-05-11 41
Charlotte E Yeager 2016-04-30 2016-04-21 0
Kurosaki Mea 2016-04-30 2016-05-13 13
Cornelius, Velvet 2016-04-30 2016-04-14 0
Yazawa Nico 2016-04-30 2016-06-29 60
Toujou Nozomi 2016-06-30 2016-08-04 35
Moffle, Sento Isuzu 2016-06-30 2016-06-10 0
Ludger Will Kresnik 2016-06-30 2016-07-12 12
Orihara Izaya 2016-07-31 2016-07-07 0
Master Artoria 2016-07-31 2016-07-27 0
Maekawa Miku 2016-08-31 2016-08-31 0
Tada Riina 2016-08-31 2016-09-27 27
Aliasse 2015-09-30 2016-01-13 105
Julius Will Kresnik 2016-09-30 2016-10-11 11
Nishikino Maki 2016-09-30 2016-09-08 0
Edna, Normin 2016-09-30 2016-11-08 39
Koizumi Hanayo 2016-10-31 2016-12-16 46
Leonard Watch 2016-11-30 2016-11-28 0
Heroine X 2015-12-31 2016-01-20 20
RE-RELEASE
Tachibana Makoto 2016-01-31 2016-02-10 10
Nanase Haruka 2016-01-31 2016-02-10 10
Honma Meiko 2016-02-29 2016-03-17 17
Gwendolyn 2016-03-31 2016-04-26 26
Mercedes 2016-03-31 2016-04-26 26
Kasugano Sora 2016-05-31 2016-05-31 0

FIRST TIME: 30 / RE-RELEASE: 6

2017:
I only listed those with an announced month of release. I'm not including any note in this set. Also, for figure not yet released, the "release date" used is the first of the month to calculate delays so far.
View spoilerHide spoilerFIRST TIME RELEASE
Yuzuruha 2016-10-31 2017-03-01 121
Saber Alter 2016-11-30 2017-02-03 65
Kasugano Sora 2016-12-31 2017-04-01 91
Tougou Mimori 2017-04-30 2017-04-30 0
Yagyu Jubei 2017-05-31 2017-05-31 0
Kousaka Honoka 2017-06-30 2017-06-30 0
Yasuhara Ema 2017-02-28 2017-02-28 0
Sonoda Umi 2017-04-30 2017-04-30 0
Purple Heart 2017-08-31 2017-08-31 0
Ayase Eli 2017-09-30 2017-09-30 0
Charlotte Dunois, Laura Bodewig 2017-03-31 2017-03-31 0
Sakuma Ritsu 2017-05-31 2017-05-31 0
Gertrud Barkhorn 2017-07-31 2017-07-31 0
Anastasia 2017-06-30 2017-06-30 0
Aijima Cecil 2017-07-31 2017-07-31 0
Kanzaki Ranko 2017-05-31 2017-05-31 0
Nitta Minami 2017-04-30 2017-04-30 0
RE-RELEASE
Kongiku 2016-11-30 2017-04-01 122
Heroine X 2017-01-31 2017-03-01 29
Momohime 2016-12-31 2017-03-01 60
Lala Satalin Deviluke 2016-12-31 2017-01-20 20
Saber EXTRA 2017-02-28 2017-02-28 0
Minami Kotori 2017-07-31 2017-07-31 0

FIRST TIME: 17 / RE-RELEASE: 6

Alter's average delay for 2014
First time release: 70.39 days
Re-release: 31.14 days
Both: 62.54 days

Average while excluding Exclusive and/or Limited figure:
*Value between "[ ]" is the delay in days of the excluded figure.

First time release: 72.27 days (exclude Magical Emi [0], Maeda Keiji [92])
Re-release: 34.67 days (exclude Yagyu Jubei [10])
Both: 65.22 days

Alter's average delay for 2015
First time release: 28.21 days
Re-release: 15.67 days
Both: 25.16 days

Average while excluding Exclusive and/or Limited figure:
*Value between "[ ]" is the delay in days of the excluded figure.

First time release: 28.31 days (exclude Kitashirakawa Anko [27], Uesugi Kagekatsu [27])
Re-release: 15.67 days (same)
Both: 25.06 days

Alter's average delay for 2016
First time release: 24.97 days
Re-release: 14.83 days
Both: 23.28 days

Average while excluding Exclusive and/or Limited figure:
*Value between "[ ]" is the delay in days of the excluded figure.

First time release: 26.07 days (exclude Charles D'Artagnan [19], Lala Satalin Deviluke [0])
Re-release: 14.83 days (same)
Both: 24.09 days

Alter's average delay for 2017
For what it's worth (not much really... xD)
*to calculate a delay in days for figure not yet released but already delayed, their release date correspond to the first of the month they're planned for right now.

[All figure with a planned month as if they will release on the current planned month]
First time release: 16.29 days
Re-release: 38.50 days
Both: 21.17 days

[Only the figure that got further delayed or were already released]
First time release: 92.33 days
Re-release: 57.75 days
Both: 72.57 days

Alter's average delay for 2014 to 2017
For already release figure only.

First time release: 41.09 days
Re-release: 20.35 days
Both: 36.75 days

Average while excluding Exclusive and/or Limited figure:

First time release: 26.07 days
Re-release: 14.83 days
Both: 24.09 days


Delay distribution by release date

Here's a graphic, that illustrate the delay in days of each figure released. On the x-axis, you got the date the figure was released on, on the y-axis you got the delay in days. Each square represent a first time release and each diamond represent a re-release. The line are the average for the set of data concerned, refer to the legend on the right. Each year got 2 differents color, one for the first time release and one for the re-release, so we got 8 color. For 2017, I've only included the figure that were further delayed or those already released.

http://s1.tsuki-board.net/upload/pictures/2017/02/12/1707362.jpeg

There's huge gap between the different release, but looking at it, they fixed some of the problems they had in 2013-2014 in the last 2 years, they still got delay, but they cut that by half.

Average delay by months
So which month actually happen to have the highest delays? That said, you can look at it 2 ways, either by the release date or by the month they originally planned to release the figure. Data used under spoiler, each line in this order:
- Month
- Average delay based on planned release month
- Average delay based on official release date
View spoilerHide spoilerJanuary 42.82 37.47
February 32.17 34.5
March 20.57 45.5
April 34.58 46.56
May 36.38 42.3
June 32.22 49.1
July 20.33 30.75
August 11.2 20
September 42.93 20.44
October 46 52.33
November 61.58 29.5
December 24.22 32.67


http://s1.tsuki-board.net/upload/pictures/2017/02/12/1707361.jpeg

How many are delayed?
Out of all the Alter figure released in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017,
Figure released on time: 25 [22.73%]
Figure delayed from 1 to 30 days: 38 [34.55%]
Figure delayed from 31 to 60 days: 29 [26.36%]
Figure delayed from 61 to 90 days: 4 [3.64%]
Figure delayed by 91+ days: 14 [12.73%]

So 1/5 are released on time, more than half under one month of delay and 4/5 under 2 month of delay.

Conclusion
As for Alter, I'm inclined to believe they're not doing that bad, they've improved over the last 3 year, 2014 was most likely one of the worse but I'm still curious about 2013 because of that. 2017 definitly doesn't look that good with the few highly delayed figure still not released, but depending how they do they still might end up doing slightly better than 2016. Not much to say about 2017 for the moment.

I realize this is a lot of data presented in a not so friendly way, that's one of the reason I decided to go with only 1 manufacturer by blog. I'm not really satisfied about how the whole thing is presented and change might occur in the next one, if you got suggestion, they're welcomed.

I hope you enjoyed that wall of text and numbers!
3,721 hits • 0 like8 comments

Comments8

The effort you put into this is brilliant. It's full of real research, and hard numbers. I appreciate all of this work, especially since I'm a huge Alter fan, and have also noticed their crazy delays. I have ordered Jet Striker Gertrud (ITEM #237254), which I expect to be delayed even more than the typical Alter postponement.

You have done wonderful work here.
3 years ago
lionhearth3 years ago#18195058Phat is probably gonna be the worst offender. i cant wait for those numbers haha

More like Orca. That ruri figure took forever to release.
3 years ago
Phat is probably gonna be the worst offender. i cant wait for those numbers haha
3 years ago
Beginning your "Delay blogs" with Alter: how more perfect could this be ? But I must say after checking these numbers that maybe they aren't the worst.
I don't know what happened to them between 2014 and 2015 but damn... that's some serious improvement. Can't complain if they keep going this way.

Anyway thanks for doing these blogs, your work is always interesting and really informative.
3 years ago
nikkoda HiME
Gandalf3 years ago#18195022snip
Azyx3 years ago#18195024snip

Thanks for clarifying! I hope 2017 doesn't continue to be so bad, 120 days is a big wait.
3 years ago
nikkoda3 years ago#18195014I love this wall of text and numbers! Your blogs are always interesting to read and very impressive e-even if I don't understand much
I wonder why even the re-releases get delayed so frequently? You would think it would be fairly easy since it's not the first time.
There's a smaller pool of re-release, so one delayed a lot make a huge difference, in 2015 and 2016 the average is around 15 days for re-release, while 2014 is around 33. That make the average of all re-release around 20 days, which is mostly 2014 driving them up, there was Sakamoto Mio with a 132 days delay in 2014. In 2017 we'll have the same scenario again, Kongiku was planned for November 2016 and she's already delayed to April 2017, that's a delay of at least 120 days.

I just checked to make sure renewal and recolor that I included in the re-release were not the main cause of delay for re-release but the highest one are all plain re-release

Still, at least re-release do get lower delay in general!
3 years ago
Thanks for posting these numbers and I'm looking forward to future posts as well. It can't be easy or quick gathering all the raw data so I really appreciate the amount of work that has gone into this.

nikkoda3 years ago#18195014I love this wall of text and numbers! Your blogs are always interesting to read and very impressive e-even if I don't understand much
I wonder why even the re-releases get delayed so frequently? You would think it would be fairly easy since it's not the first time.


I'm seeing trend across different media pointing towards the factories that make these items and other similar items being very busy. It's not hard to imagine that you book some time now for 6 months time and some other products run long throwing the whole schedule off.
3 years ago
nikkoda HiME
I love this wall of text and numbers! Your blogs are always interesting to read and very impressive e-even if I don't understand much

I wonder why even the re-releases get delayed so frequently? You would think it would be fairly easy since it's not the first time.
3 years ago
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